The only solution has been to upgauge from turboprops to 50 seaters, and now from 50 seaters to 70 seaters. The CASM gap between regionals and mainlines was never that big to begin with - and regionals are far more susceptible to labor costs because any increase is divided by a smaller denominator (ASMs). Mesa and some of the other carriers who bid based on being cheap are going to have a very difficult time moving forward. So the wholly owneds, SkyWest and Republic have a path out even with increased wages as they are worth what you pay for to get their reliability. Of course, Mesa isn't known for their reliability. The difference is this time around it only really is profitable for stand alone carriers if they can charge a premium for their product which is strictly based on reliability. Increasing pilot pay hasn't made the regional model no longer viable by any means (it was never specifically pilot pay that is the issue, overall overhead of ML service is much higher). We’ll have plenty of pilots and fewer regional routes for them to fly within two years. The bigger problem is that they were forced to increase wages to such levels that the regional model is no longer viable. There are enough students in the pipeline at this point that the pilot shortage will be over in two years.
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